Tap anywhere on the pitch to place a shot, then choose how it was taken. The calculator estimates the shot’s expected goals (xG): the chance an average player scores it. New to xG? Start with our xG explainer or the analytics glossary.
Pitch drawn to scale (metres). Goal at the top.
How this calculator works
Real xG models are trained on hundreds of thousands of shots. This calculator uses a deliberately simple version of the same idea, so you can see what drives chance quality:
- Distance to goal: every extra metre lowers the chance of scoring.
- Shooting angle: the wider the view of the goal mouth, the better. A shot from the byline sees almost none of the goal.
- Body part: headers are converted far less often than shots with the feet from the same spot.
- How the chance was made: through balls and cut-backs tend to create cleaner chances than crosses, and fast breaks catch defences out of shape.
- Penalties use a fixed value of 0.78, close to the conversion rate in top leagues.
The numbers are illustrative and calibrated to typical published values, so expect differences of a few hundredths compared with Opta, StatsBomb or other professional models, which also account for defensive pressure, goalkeeper position and shot technique.
Frequently asked questions
What is a “big chance” in xG terms?
Analysts usually treat shots worth roughly 0.3 xG or more as big chances, typically close-range efforts or one-on-ones. Most shots from outside the box are worth under 0.05.
Why is a header from six yards worth less than a shot with the foot?
Headers are harder to direct with power and accuracy, so across large samples they are scored much less often than footed shots from the same position.